Last week (August 30) the Office of Economic Analysis released their quarterly economic and revenue forecast. State economists frequently remind us that there is still a significant amount of uncertainty to this forecast, but the overall projection is a soft landing rather than a recession, and stability in Oregon’s revenue. Inflation has fallen from 9 to roughly 4 percent, population growth is beginning to trend upwards, and personal income tax withholdings are all looking encouraging.

Following the mostly positive forecast presentation, Speaker Dan Rayfield released the following statement on the current forecast and its relation to past and future budgeting:

“We know that Oregon families are still struggling with daily costs. This stable forecast reaffirms that we can continue to find creative solutions to our ongoing efforts and provide oversight that leads to tangible outcomes like securing family wage jobs and connecting people with addiction and mental health services. Oregon’s Democratic leadership remains committed to building fiscally responsible budgets that result in what we are seeing today: a stabilizing and growing economy. We’ll continue to maintain and strengthen services that bring down costs for working families and make sure they have the resources they need to take care of their kids.”

Facts and Figures

  • Personal income tax revenue: +$5.1 billion (24.8%) from 2021 COS forecast.
  • Personal income tax revenue: +$43.9 (0.2%) from COS forecast
  • Corporate tax revenue: +$1.8 billion (134.9%) from the 2021 COS Forecast.
  • Corporate tax revenue: +$320.9 million (14.4%) from the 2023 COS Forecast.
  • General Fund gross revenue: +$403.1 million (1.6%) from the 2023 COS Forecast.
  • Net General Fund and Lottery resources: +$446.8 million (1.3%) from the 2023 COS Forecast
  • Projected combined net General Fund and Lottery Resources: +$891.8 million (2.6%) from 2023 COS forecast.
  • 2023 personal income tax kicker projection: $5.6 billion.
  • 2023 Corporate Kicker projection: $1.8 billion (dedicated to K-12)

View the Legislative Revenue Office Forecast Summary.

View the Forecast Presentation.

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